Mtg Odds Calculator

by
✓ Reviewed by David Chen, CFA • Expert Financial & Game Theory Analyst

Optimize your deck’s consistency with our professional MTG Odds Calculator. This tool uses hypergeometric distribution to determine the exact probability of drawing your win conditions, land drops, or combo pieces at any stage of the game.

MTG Odds Calculator

Probability Results:
—
Please enter variables and click calculate.

MTG Odds Calculator Formula:

$$P(X = x) = \frac{\binom{K}{x} \binom{N-K}{n-x}}{\binom{N}{n}}$$

Source: StatTrek Probability Reference | Official Magic Math

Variables:

  • N (Total Population): The total number of cards currently in your deck.
  • K (Successes in Population): The total number of the specific card(s) you are looking for remaining in the deck.
  • n (Sample Size): The number of cards you are drawing (e.g., your opening hand or cards drawn by turn 4).
  • x (Successes in Sample): The specific number of those cards you want to see in the drawn sample.

Related Calculators:

Commander Deck Land Ratio Tool Mana Curve Efficiency Calculator MTG Combo Consistency Score Mulligan Probability Matrix

What is MTG Odds Calculator?

An MTG Odds Calculator is a specialized tool that utilizes the Hypergeometric Distribution model to calculate the likelihood of specific outcomes in a game of Magic: The Gathering. Since MTG involves drawing from a finite population without replacement, standard percentage math doesn’t apply accurately.

Players use this to answer questions like “What are the chances I draw at least 2 lands in my opening hand?” or “What is the probability of finding my win-condition by turn 5?”. Mastering these odds is the difference between a casual player and a competitive professional.

How to Calculate MTG Odds (Example):

  1. Identify your Deck Size (e.g., 60 cards).
  2. Count how many target cards are in the deck (e.g., 4 copies of “Lightning Bolt”).
  3. Determine your Draw Count (e.g., 7 cards in an opening hand).
  4. Apply the hypergeometric formula to find the probability of drawing 1 or more copies.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ):

Does this take into account Scrying? No, this basic hypergeometric calculator assumes a random draw. Scrying requires a multi-step conditional probability calculation.

What is the ideal land count for a 60-card deck? Most decks run between 20-26 lands. Use this calculator to ensure you have an 80%+ chance of hitting your 3rd land drop on turn 3.

Is “At Least” better than “Exactly”? Usually, yes. In MTG, you generally care about having at least a certain number of resources rather than exactly that number.

How do I calculate for Commander (EDH)? Simply change the Deck Size to 99 and adjust your success count (K) based on how many redundant effects you play.

V}

Leave a Comment