Use this **Poe Recombinator Calculator** to determine the expected attempts needed to achieve a desired success probability, or to calculate the overall success chance based on a set number of trials. This tool uses a base probability model to estimate resource costs.
Poe Recombinator Calculator
Poe Recombinator Calculator Formula:
R = 100 * (1 – (1 – P/100)N)
T = N × C
Formula Sources: Geometric Distribution Probability, Path of Exile Official Site
Variables:
- Base Success Chance (P): The estimated probability (in percent) that a single use of the Recombinator will yield a successful outcome. This is often based on the item level and mod complexity.
- Target Reliability (R): The user’s desired chance (in percent) of achieving at least one successful item out of the entire investment.
- Attempts Needed (N): The calculated number of Recombinators required to reach the specified Target Reliability (R).
- Cost Per Recombinator (C): The current market price of a single Recombinator, typically measured in Chaos or Divine Orbs.
Related Calculators:
- Divine to Chaos Converter
- Vaal Orb Probability Checker
- Annul Orb Success Rate
- Crafting Cost Estimator
What is the Poe Recombinator Calculator?
The Poe Recombinator Calculator is an essential tool for high-end crafting in Path of Exile. Recombinators allow players to smash two items of the same base type together, creating a new item that can inherit modifiers from both originals. Since the results are highly probabilistic and RNG-dependent, this calculator helps crafters move from guesswork to expected value.
Specifically, the tool addresses the core question: **”How many Recombinators do I need to be 90% certain of getting at least one successful outcome?”** By solving for the number of attempts (N) required to meet a specific target reliability (R), crafters can budget their currency, manage expectations, and minimize frustration in the complex world of PoE crafting.
The calculator uses the principles of geometric probability to model the cost-per-success. It assumes that each attempt is an independent Bernoulli trial, making it perfect for estimating costs related to base success chance.
How to Calculate Poe Recombinator Cost (Example):
- Input Base Chance (P): A crafter estimates their unique combination has a 60% chance of success (P=60).
- Input Target Reliability (R): The crafter wants to be 95% sure they get the item (R=95).
- Input Cost (C): A Recombinator currently costs 25 Chaos Orbs (C=25).
- Calculate Attempts (N): The calculator uses the formula: $N = \ln(1 – 0.95) / \ln(1 – 0.6) \approx 5.86$ attempts.
- Determine Total Cost (T): $T = N \times C = 5.86 \times 25 \approx 146.5$ Chaos Orbs.
- The result indicates the crafter should expect to spend around 147 Chaos Orbs to achieve their goal with 95% certainty.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ):
What is a Recombinator?
Recombinators are consumable currency items in Path of Exile used to merge two items of the same base type, yielding a new item with a random selection of modifiers from the two input items.
Why is the base chance (P) an estimate?
The exact success mechanics of Recombinators are not fully disclosed by the developers. The Base Success Chance (P) in this calculator represents the user’s best estimate, often derived from community testing or personal experience, regarding the probability of a successful outcome.
What does Target Reliability (R) mean?
Target Reliability is the overall probability of achieving at least one successful item. If you set it to 99%, you are asking, “How many Recombinators do I need to be 99% sure I get *at least one* successful craft?”
Can I use this for other PoE crafting methods?
Yes, the core probability formulas are based on repeated independent trials. You can use this calculator for any crafting method in PoE (like Vaal Orb, Exalt Slam, or Annulment) where you have an estimated success chance (P) and want to calculate the attempts needed for a specific reliability (R).