Cs Trade up Calculator

Reviewed by: David Chen, CS:GO/CS2 Market Analyst

Determine the expected profitability of your next Counter-Strike Trade Up Contract before you commit your valuable skins. This calculator takes into account the potential success and failure outcomes, their respective probabilities, and the Steam Market fee.

Average Input Skin Price (per skin, $)

Expected Success Output Value ($)

Average Failure Output Value ($)

High-Tier Success Probability (%)

Market Tax/Fee Rate (%)

Expected Profit/Loss (EV): A positive value indicates expected profit, negative is expected loss.

Calculation Steps

CS Trade Up Calculator Formula

The calculation is based on the Expected Value (EV) principle, which measures the potential outcome of a variable event by multiplying the value of each outcome by its probability, then subtracting the total cost.

$$\text{Cost} = \text{Input Price} \times 10$$ $$\text{Revenue} = (\text{Success Value} \times \text{Success Prob}) + (\text{Failure Value} \times (1 – \text{Success Prob}))$$ $$\text{Expected Value (EV)} = (\text{Revenue} \times (1 – \text{Tax Rate})) – \text{Cost}$$

Formula adapted from principles of Expected Return and CS Market analysis. Sources: Steam Market Fee Policy, Counter-Strike Official Blog

Variables Explained

Average Input Skin Price (per skin, $): The average current market price for one of the ten skins you are placing into the Trade Up Contract.
Expected Success Output Value ($): The estimated market value of the desirable output skin(s) you are hoping to receive (High Tier).
Average Failure Output Value ($): The average market value of the undesirable output skin(s) you will likely receive (Low Tier).
High-Tier Success Probability (%): The calculated chance, based on the float values and collections used, of receiving a high-tier (profitable) output item.
Market Tax/Fee Rate (%): The percentage taken by the marketplace (e.g., Steam Market’s 15% fee) upon successful sale of the output skin.

What is a CS Trade Up Contract?

The Trade Up Contract in Counter-Strike is an in-game feature that allows players to exchange 10 normal skins of the same grade (e.g., Mil-Spec, Restricted) for one skin of the next higher grade. The resulting skin is determined by the combination of collections present in the 10 input skins. This mechanism is a highly volatile form of gambling, where the objective is to create a contract with a positive Expected Value (EV) to maximize the long-term chance of profit.

The profitability of a Trade Up Contract depends entirely on two factors: the cost of the 10 input skins and the probability distribution of the output skins’ market values. Successful contracts are often meticulously planned by leveraging specific float values and collection combinations to ensure the high-value ‘Success’ outcome has a sufficient chance of dropping.

How to Calculate CS Trade Up Expected Value (Example)

Determine Total Cost: Multiply the Average Input Skin Price ($0.95) by 10 skins. ($0.95 * 10 = $9.50)
Calculate Failure Probability: Subtract the Success Probability (10% or 0.10) from 1 (1 – 0.10 = 0.90 or 90%).
Calculate Expected Revenue: Multiply the Success Value ($25.00) by the Success Probability (0.10) AND multiply the Failure Value ($1.50) by the Failure Probability (0.90). Then sum these values: ($25.00 * 0.10) + ($1.50 * 0.90) = $2.50 + $1.35 = $3.85.
Apply Market Fee: Reduce the Expected Revenue by the Tax Rate (15% or 0.15). ($3.85 * (1 – 0.15)) = $3.85 * 0.85 = $3.27.
Find Expected Value (EV): Subtract the Total Cost ($9.50) from the Fee-Adjusted Revenue ($3.27). ($3.27 – $9.50 = -$6.23). This contract has a negative Expected Value, meaning an expected loss of $6.23 per contract attempt.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Is a positive Expected Value (EV) guaranteed profit?

No. EV represents the average outcome over a very large number of attempts. On a single attempt, you will either gain the Success Value or the Failure Value. A positive EV only indicates that the contract is mathematically favorable for long-term profit.

How do I find the correct Success Probability?

The probability is complex to determine and depends on the collections and float values of your 10 input skins. You must use external tools (like third-party Trade Up calculators) to input your specific 10 skins to get an accurate probability for the high-tier outputs.

What is the typical Steam Market Tax Rate?

The standard Steam Community Market fee is 15% (10% Steam Fee + 5% CS:GO/CS2 Fee). If you are trading up to sell on a third-party site, the fee rate entered should reflect that platform’s commission.

Can I use different skin grades in one contract?

No, all 10 input skins must be of the same rarity grade (e.g., all Restricted, all Classified, etc.) to perform a Trade Up Contract.