Welcome to the definitive **CS:GO Trade Up Calculator**. This tool helps you quickly determine the Expected Value (EV) and potential Profit/Loss of your Trade Up contract by factoring in the cost of input skins and the potential prices and chances of the output skins. Stop gambling and start investing smartly in your inventory!
CS:GO Trade Up Calculator
Final Trade Up Outcome
CS:GO Trade Up Calculator Formula
The core concept behind the Trade Up contract is the Expected Value (EV). A trade up is profitable if its Expected Value exceeds the total cost of the input skins.
Expected Value (EV) = (PriceA × ChanceA) + (PriceB × ChanceB) + ...
Profit/Loss = EV - Total Cost of Input Skins
Formula Source: For a deeper understanding of collection weighting and float calculation, please consult established community guides: CSGO.Exchange Guides | Tradeup.GG Guide
Variables Explained
This calculator uses the following variables to calculate your potential profit:
- Total Cost of 10 Input Skins: The market price you paid for the 10 skins required for the contract.
- Target Output Skin A Price: The market price of the most valuable skin you are aiming for (e.g., the rare AWP).
- Average Price of ALL Other Output Skins: The weighted average price of all remaining possible output skins, often the “filler” skins that result in a loss.
- Chance of Target Skin A (%): The percentage probability of receiving the Target Skin A, which is determined by the skin’s collection weighting.
What is the CS:GO Trade Up Calculator?
The CS:GO Trade Up Calculator is an essential tool for serious inventory investors. The Trade Up Contract allows a player to exchange 10 skins of the same rarity and exterior quality (e.g., 10 Mil-Spec, Factory New skins) for one skin of the next highest rarity, maintaining the same wear value distribution.
The complexity comes from two factors: the potential output **collection** (determining the skin) and the potential output **float value** (determining the wear). This calculator simplifies this by calculating the overall Expected Value (EV), which is the long-term average return of repeating the contract many times. If the EV is greater than the total cost, the trade up is mathematically profitable.
How to Calculate Expected Value (Example)
- Determine Input Cost: You buy 10 input skins for $0.40 each, totaling $4.00.
- Determine Output Prices: You have a 20% chance of getting Skin A (Price: $25.00) and an 80% chance of getting Skin B (Price: $1.00).
- Calculate Expected Value (EV):
- $25.00 * 0.20 = $5.00
- $1.00 * 0.80 = $0.80
- Total EV = $5.00 + $0.80 = $5.80
- Calculate Profit/Loss:
- Profit/Loss = EV – Cost = $5.80 – $4.00 = +$1.80
In this example, the trade up is profitable, yielding an expected $1.80 profit per attempt.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
1. How accurate is this calculator?
This calculator is based on the official formula for Expected Value. Its accuracy depends entirely on the accuracy of the skin prices and the percentage chances you input, which must account for collection weighting and float values.
2. What is Expected Value (EV)?
EV represents the average amount of money you can expect to win or lose per trade-up attempt over a very large number of contracts. An EV greater than the contract cost is a positive EV (profitable) trade up.
3. Why do I need 10 input skins?
The CS:GO Trade Up Contract officially requires 10 items of the same rarity and condition (e.g., 10 Classified, Minimal Wear) to exchange for one item of the next highest rarity.
4. Where do I find the correct Chance percentage?
The chance percentage is determined by the collection weights of the input skins. Specialized community tools or established trade-up guides are needed to calculate these precise percentages based on the collections you use.
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