13 Keys to the White House Calculator

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Reviewed by: **David Chen, Political Analyst & Historian**

The 13 Keys to the White House model, developed by political historian Allan Lichtman, is a highly effective, non-polling predictor of U.S. presidential election results. Use this calculator to determine whether the incumbent party (the party currently holding the presidency) is likely to win or lose the next election based on 13 simple binary factors.

13 Keys to the White House Calculator

Prediction Result:

13 Keys to the White House Calculator Formula

The calculation is based on the number of “False Keys” (KF), where a False Key is any factor favoring the challenging party.

If KF ≤ 6: Incumbent Party Wins
If KF ≥ 7: Challenging Party Wins

Formula Source: Wikipedia: The Keys to the White House and Princeton University Press

Variables:

The calculator uses 13 binary (Yes/No) variables, each representing a key:

  • **K1 – Mandate Key:** Measures incumbent party’s performance in the last midterms.
  • **K2 – Contest Key:** Measures stability of the incumbent party’s nomination process.
  • **K3 – Incumbency Key:** Whether the sitting President is the candidate.
  • **K4 – Third Party Key:** Presence of a major third-party threat.
  • **K5 – Short-term Economy:** Economic status immediately before the election.
  • **K6 – Long-term Economy:** Economic growth over the entire term.
  • **K7 – Policy Change Key:** Success of major policy shifts by the incumbent.
  • **K8 – Social Unrest Key:** Absence of widespread social discord.
  • **K9 – Scandal Key:** Absence of major scandals tied to the administration.
  • **K10 – Foreign/Military Failure:** Absence of significant international setbacks.
  • **K11 – Foreign/Military Success:** Presence of a significant international triumph.
  • **K12 – Incumbent Charisma:** The incumbent candidate’s personal appeal.
  • **K13 – Challenger Charisma:** The challenger’s personal appeal (Inverse key).

What is the 13 Keys to the White House Calculator?

The 13 Keys to the White House is a system developed by American political historian Allan Lichtman, first published in his 1996 book *The Keys to the White House*. Unlike traditional opinion polling, which captures snapshots of public sentiment, the Keys model is a structural forecasting tool. It predicts the popular vote winner based on 13 historical and performance factors, leading to a simple binary outcome: a win for the incumbent party or a win for the challenging party.

The core concept is that American presidential elections are primarily referenda on the performance of the party holding the White House. Each key is phrased so that a “true” answer (favoring the incumbent party) counts as 0, and a “false” answer (favoring the challenging party) counts as 1 (or a “False Key”). The model requires 7 or more False Keys for the incumbent party to lose.

How to Calculate the 13 Keys (Example)

Follow these steps to manually determine the prediction:

  1. **Determine the Status of Each Key:** For each of the 13 keys, determine whether the current political and economic climate favors the incumbent party (“True Key”) or the challenging party (“False Key”).
  2. **Count the False Keys:** Tally up the total number of keys that favor the challenging party. This is your total count of False Keys (KF).
  3. **Apply the Rule:** Compare the False Key count to the threshold of 6.
  4. **Make the Prediction:** If KF is 6 or less, the incumbent party is predicted to win. If KF is 7 or more, the challenging party is predicted to win.

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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Does the 13 Keys Calculator predict the Electoral College or the popular vote?

The model is designed to predict the winner of the national popular vote. However, given the strong correlation between the popular vote and the Electoral College outcome in US elections, it is commonly used to predict the eventual presidential winner.

Has the model ever been wrong?

The 13 Keys model has accurately predicted every US presidential election since 1984. Its only acknowledged failure was a prediction that the popular vote winner would be different from the Electoral College winner in 2000, though it correctly predicted the popular vote winner.

What makes a key ‘True’ or ‘False’?

A key is ‘True’ if its condition favors the incumbent party. It is ‘False’ if the condition favors the challenging party. For example, if the economy is in recession (Key 5), it is a False Key because that condition favors the challenger.

Can I use this model before the nominations are final?

The model is best applied when all variables, particularly those related to the nominated candidates’ charisma (Keys 12 and 13), are settled. Applying it too early may require significant speculation, reducing its accuracy.

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