Estimate your 10-year risk of experiencing a major cardiovascular event (like heart attack or stroke).
Male
Female
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
Your Estimated 10-Year Cardiovascular Risk:
—
Understanding Cardiovascular Event Risk
Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the leading cause of death globally. Identifying individuals at high risk for future cardiovascular events, such as heart attacks and strokes, is crucial for implementing preventive strategies. This calculator provides an estimation of your 10-year risk of experiencing a major cardiovascular event, based on several well-established risk factors.
How the Risk is Calculated
This calculator employs a simplified approach inspired by established risk prediction models like the Framingham Risk Score or similar algorithms. These models use statistical analysis of large populations to determine the probability of an event occurring based on a combination of factors. The core idea is that each risk factor (age, blood pressure, cholesterol levels, smoking, diabetes) contributes to the overall likelihood of a cardiovascular event.
The calculation typically involves a complex formula that assigns points or weights to each risk factor. These points are then combined, often transformed using a specific mathematical function (like a logistic regression model), to yield a percentage representing the probability of a cardiovascular event within a defined timeframe (e.g., 10 years).
Key factors and their general influence:
Age: Risk increases significantly with age.
Gender: Historically, men have had a higher risk at younger ages, but women's risk catches up after menopause.
Systolic Blood Pressure: Higher systolic blood pressure is a major risk factor. Treatment for hypertension can reduce this risk.
Total Cholesterol: Higher total cholesterol levels are associated with increased risk.
HDL Cholesterol: High-Density Lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, often called "good" cholesterol, is protective. Lower HDL levels increase risk.
Diabetes: Diabetes significantly elevates the risk of cardiovascular disease due to its impact on blood vessels.
Blood Pressure Treatment: Being on medication for high blood pressure indicates a pre-existing condition and often correlates with higher overall risk, even if blood pressure is controlled.
Interpreting the Results
The result is an estimated percentage of your chance of having a major cardiovascular event in the next 10 years.
Low Risk: Generally considered less than 10%.
Intermediate Risk: Typically between 10% and 20%.
High Risk: Generally considered 20% or more.
Disclaimer: This calculator is for informational purposes only and is not a substitute for professional medical advice. It provides an estimation based on common risk factors and may not account for all individual nuances or other specific medical conditions. Always consult with a qualified healthcare provider for diagnosis, treatment, and personalized risk assessment.
function calculateRisk() {
var age = parseFloat(document.getElementById("age").value);
var gender = document.getElementById("gender").value;
var systolicBP = parseFloat(document.getElementById("systolicBP").value);
var cholesterol = parseFloat(document.getElementById("cholesterol").value);
var hdlCholesterol = parseFloat(document.getElementById("hdlCholesterol").value);
var smokingStatus = document.getElementById("smokingStatus").value;
var diabetes = document.getElementById("diabetes").value;
var treatmentForBP = document.getElementById("treatmentForBP").value;
// Basic validation
if (isNaN(age) || isNaN(systolicBP) || isNaN(cholesterol) || isNaN(hdlCholesterol) ||
age <= 0 || systolicBP <= 0 || cholesterol <= 0 || hdlCholesterol = 30 && age = 35 && age = 40 && age = 45 && age = 50 && age = 55 && age = 60 && age = 65 && age = 70) score += 8;
} else { // Female
if (age >= 30 && age = 35 && age = 40 && age = 45 && age = 50 && age = 55 && age = 60 && age = 65 && age = 70) score += 8;
}
// Total Cholesterol points (example ranges)
if (gender === "male") {
if (cholesterol = 160 && cholesterol = 185 && cholesterol = 205 && cholesterol = 225 && cholesterol = 245) score += 5;
} else { // Female
if (cholesterol = 160 && cholesterol = 185 && cholesterol = 205 && cholesterol = 225 && cholesterol = 245) score += 5;
}
// HDL Cholesterol points (example ranges)
if (gender === "male") {
if (hdlCholesterol >= 60) score -= 1;
else if (hdlCholesterol >= 50 && hdlCholesterol = 40 && hdlCholesterol < 50) score += 1;
else if (hdlCholesterol = 60) score -= 1;
else if (hdlCholesterol >= 50 && hdlCholesterol = 40 && hdlCholesterol < 50) score += 1;
else if (hdlCholesterol < 40) score += 2;
}
// Systolic Blood Pressure points (Example: Untreated)
var bpPoints = 0;
if (systolicBP = 120 && systolicBP = 130 && systolicBP = 140 && systolicBP = 160) bpPoints = 4;
if (treatmentForBP === "yes") {
bpPoints += 2; // Add points if on treatment
}
score += bpPoints;
// Smoking status
if (smokingStatus === "yes") {
score += 2;
}
// Diabetes
if (diabetes === "yes") {
score += 3;
}
// Convert score to percentage risk (Illustrative non-linear mapping)
// This is a highly simplified conversion. Real models use logistic regression.
var riskPercentage;
if (gender === "male") {
if (score = 19) riskPercentage = 35;
else riskPercentage = 0; // Default for edge cases
} else { // Female
if (score = 19) riskPercentage = 37;
else riskPercentage = 0; // Default for edge cases
}
// Clamp the result to a reasonable range (e.g., 0-100)
riskPercentage = Math.max(0, Math.min(100, riskPercentage));
var description = "";
if (riskPercentage = 10 && riskPercentage < 20) {
description = "This is considered an intermediate risk. Discuss preventive strategies with your doctor.";
} else {
description = "This is considered a high risk. It is strongly recommended to consult with a healthcare professional for further evaluation and management.";
}
document.getElementById("riskResult").innerText = riskPercentage.toFixed(1) + "%";
document.getElementById("riskDescription").innerText = description;
document.getElementById("resultContainer").style.display = "block";
}