Arbitrage Betting Calculator

by

Arbitrage Betting Calculator

Calculate "Sure Bets" and Guarantee Profits

Calculation Summary

Stake for Outcome A:
Stake for Outcome B:
Total Return:
Net Profit:
Profit Margin:
No Arbitrage Opportunity: These odds result in a guaranteed loss. To have a "sure bet," the combined implied probability must be less than 100%.

Understanding Arbitrage Betting

Arbitrage betting, often called "arbing" or "sure bets," is a mathematical approach to gambling where you place bets on all possible outcomes of an event across different bookmakers. Because bookmakers often have varying opinions or move their lines at different speeds, discrepancies arise that allow a savvy bettor to lock in a profit regardless of who wins.

How to Use the Arbitrage Calculator

  1. Find the Odds: Locate a two-way market (like a Tennis match or a Point Spread) where two different sportsbooks offer high odds for opposing sides.
  2. Enter Your Stake: Decide the total amount of money you want to invest across both bets.
  3. Input Decimal Odds: Enter the decimal odds for Outcome A and Outcome B.
  4. Review the Split: The calculator will tell you exactly how much to bet on each outcome to ensure the payout is identical no matter the result.

Example Calculation

Imagine a tennis match between Player 1 and Player 2:

  • Bookmaker A offers Player 1 at odds of 2.15.
  • Bookmaker B offers Player 2 at odds of 1.95.

If you invest $1,000:

  • You bet $475.61 on Player 1 at 2.15 (Payout: $1,022.56)
  • You bet $524.39 on Player 2 at 1.95 (Payout: $1,022.56)
  • Guaranteed Profit: $22.56 (2.26% Return on Investment).

Critical Risks to Consider

While arbitrage is mathematically sound, it is not without practical risks:

  1. Account Limiting: Bookmakers dislike arbitrage bettors and may limit your maximum stake or close your account if they suspect "arbing" behavior.
  2. Line Movements: Odds can change in the seconds between placing your first and second bet.
  3. Palpable Errors (Palps): If a bookmaker makes an obvious clerical error in their odds, they may cancel the bet, leaving you exposed on the other side.
  4. Stake Limits: One bookmaker might accept a $500 bet while the other limits you to $50, breaking the math.
function calculateArbitrage() { var totalStake = parseFloat(document.getElementById('totalStake').value); var oddsA = parseFloat(document.getElementById('oddsA').value); var oddsB = parseFloat(document.getElementById('oddsB').value); var resultDiv = document.getElementById('arbResult'); var warningDiv = document.getElementById('arbWarning'); if (isNaN(totalStake) || isNaN(oddsA) || isNaN(oddsB) || totalStake <= 0 || oddsA <= 1 || oddsB = 1) { resultDiv.style.display = 'none'; warningDiv.style.display = 'block'; } else { warningDiv.style.display = 'none'; resultDiv.style.display = 'block'; var stakeA = (totalStake * impliedProbA) / totalImpliedProb; var stakeB = (totalStake * impliedProbB) / totalImpliedProb; var payout = stakeA * oddsA; var profit = payout – totalStake; var profitMargin = (profit / totalStake) * 100; document.getElementById('resStakeA').innerText = "$" + stakeA.toFixed(2); document.getElementById('resStakeB').innerText = "$" + stakeB.toFixed(2); document.getElementById('resReturn').innerText = "$" + payout.toFixed(2); document.getElementById('resProfit').innerText = "$" + profit.toFixed(2); document.getElementById('resMargin').innerText = profitMargin.toFixed(2) + "%"; document.getElementById('arbSummaryText').innerText = "Arbitrage Opportunity Found! By splitting your $" + totalStake.toFixed(2) + " investment as shown below, you lock in a profit regardless of the outcome."; } }

Leave a Comment