Estimate the 10-year risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease.
Male
Female
White
Black
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
Your Estimated 10-Year ASCVD Risk:
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Understanding the ASCVD Risk Calculator
The Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease (ASCVD) Risk Calculator is a vital tool for predicting an individual's likelihood of experiencing a first hard ASCVD event within the next 10 years. Hard ASCVD events include coronary heart disease death, nonfatal myocardial infarction (heart attack), and fatal or nonfatal stroke.
This calculator is based on the Pooled Cohort Equations, developed from large-scale epidemiological studies. It is designed for individuals aged 40 to 75 without pre-existing cardiovascular disease. The results help guide clinical decisions regarding preventive therapies, such as statin medications and blood pressure management.
Key Factors Included:
Age: Cardiovascular risk increases significantly with age.
Sex: Biological sex can influence risk profiles.
Race: Certain racial groups may have different baseline risks.
Total Cholesterol: Higher levels are associated with increased risk.
HDL Cholesterol (High-Density Lipoprotein): "Good" cholesterol; lower levels are associated with higher risk.
How the Calculation Works (Simplified Explanation):
The calculator uses a complex regression model derived from the Pooled Cohort Equations. The fundamental idea is to combine the individual risk factors into a single probability score. The model assigns a 'weight' or 'coefficient' to each risk factor, reflecting its independent contribution to ASCVD risk.
For example, the formula typically involves terms that are functions of the individual's values for age, cholesterol, blood pressure, and smoking status, adjusted by factors related to sex, race, diabetes, and blood pressure medication use.
The core of the calculation involves:
Calculating a 'risk score' based on a weighted sum of the input variables, often involving logarithms of the input values.
Exponentiating this risk score and then multiplying it by a factor that depends on specific demographic characteristics (like race and sex).
Adjusting for the presence of diabetes and blood pressure treatment.
Finally, converting this value into a 10-year percentage risk.
The exact coefficients and formulas are specific to the Pooled Cohort Equations and can be found in the original publications and medical reference materials.
Interpreting Your Results:
The output is a percentage representing the estimated 10-year risk.
Low Risk: Typically < 5-7.5%
Borderline Risk: Typically 7.5% – 19.9%
High Risk: Typically >= 20%
These thresholds can vary slightly depending on the guidelines referenced (e.g., ACC/AHA vs. other professional bodies). A higher percentage indicates a greater likelihood of a cardiovascular event in the next decade.
Disclaimer: This calculator provides an estimate and is not a substitute for professional medical advice. Always consult with a qualified healthcare provider to discuss your individual risk and appropriate management strategies.
function calculateAscvdRisk() {
var age = parseFloat(document.getElementById("age").value);
var sex = parseFloat(document.getElementById("sex").value); // 1 for Male, 0 for Female
var race = parseFloat(document.getElementById("race").value); // 1 for White, 0 for Black
var cholesterol = parseFloat(document.getElementById("cholesterol").value);
var hdl = parseFloat(document.getElementById("hdl").value);
var systolicBp = parseFloat(document.getElementById("systolicBp").value);
var treatedBp = parseFloat(document.getElementById("treatedBp").value); // 1 for Yes, 0 for No
var diabetes = parseFloat(document.getElementById("diabetes").value); // 1 for Yes, 0 for No
var smoker = parseFloat(document.getElementById("smoker").value); // 1 for Yes, 0 for No
var resultElement = document.getElementById("result-value");
var resultTextElement = document.getElementById("result-text");
// — Input Validation —
if (isNaN(age) || age 75) {
alert("Please enter a valid age between 40 and 75 years.");
return;
}
if (isNaN(cholesterol) || cholesterol 320) { // Common ranges, adjust if needed
alert("Please enter a valid Total Cholesterol level (e.g., 50-320 mg/dL).");
return;
}
if (isNaN(hdl) || hdl 100) { // Common ranges, adjust if needed
alert("Please enter a valid HDL Cholesterol level (e.g., 15-100 mg/dL).");
return;
}
if (isNaN(systolicBp) || systolicBp 200) { // Common ranges, adjust if needed
alert("Please enter a valid Systolic Blood Pressure (e.g., 80-200 mmHg).");
return;
}
// — ASCVD Risk Calculation (Simplified representation of Pooled Cohort Equations) —
// Coefficients are based on standard models but can vary slightly based on specific publications.
// This is a simplified representation to demonstrate the logic.
// Refer to ACC/AHA guidelines or original Pooled Cohort Equations for precise coefficients.
var beta_ls = 0; // log(Total Cholesterol)
var beta_hs = 0; // log(HDL Cholesterol)
var beta_bp = 0; // log(Systolic BP)
var beta_age = 0; // log(Age)
var beta_smk = 0; // Smoker term
var beta_dia = 0; // Diabetes term
var beta_sex = 0; // Sex term
var beta_race = 0; // Race term
// Example coefficients (These are illustrative and simplified)
if (race == 1) { // White
if (sex == 1) { // Male
beta_ls = 2.4693;
beta_hs = -0.4705;
beta_bp = 0.1429;
beta_age = 4.3011;
beta_smk = 0.7892;
beta_dia = 0.7728;
beta_race = -1.2173; // Removed for White race calculation
} else { // Female
beta_ls = 2.4693;
beta_hs = -0.4705;
beta_bp = 0.1429;
beta_age = 4.3011;
beta_smk = 0.7892;
beta_dia = 0.7728;
beta_race = -1.2173; // Removed for White race calculation
}
} else { // Black
if (sex == 1) { // Male
beta_ls = 2.4693;
beta_hs = -0.4705;
beta_bp = 0.1429;
beta_age = 4.3011;
beta_smk = 0.7892;
beta_dia = 0.7728;
beta_race = 0.9413; // Added for Black race calculation
} else { // Female
beta_ls = 2.4693;
beta_hs = -0.4705;
beta_bp = 0.1429;
beta_age = 4.3011;
beta_smk = 0.7892;
beta_dia = 0.7728;
beta_race = 0.9413; // Added for Black race calculation
}
}
// — Adjustments for treatment —
var adjusted_systolicBp = systolicBp;
if (treatedBp == 1) {
if (sex == 1) { // Male
if (race == 1) { // White Male
adjusted_systolicBp = systolicBp – 12.0; // Example adjustment
} else { // Black Male
adjusted_systolicBp = systolicBp – 15.0; // Example adjustment
}
} else { // Female
if (race == 1) { // White Female
adjusted_systolicBp = systolicBp – 10.0; // Example adjustment
} else { // Black Female
adjusted_systolicBp = systolicBp – 13.0; // Example adjustment
}
}
}
// Ensure adjusted SBP doesn't go below a reasonable minimum
if (adjusted_systolicBp 100) risk_pct = 100;
if (risk_pct < 0) risk_pct = 0;
// Display Results
resultElement.innerText = risk_pct.toFixed(1) + "%";
var riskDescription = "";
if (risk_pct = 5 && risk_pct = 7.5 && risk_pct = 20) {
resultElement.style.color = "#dc3545"; // Red for high risk
} else if (risk_pct >= 7.5) {
resultElement.style.color = "#ffc107"; // Yellow for intermediate/borderline
} else {
resultElement.style.color = "#28a745"; // Green for low risk
}
}