A professional analyst specializing in digital asset valuation and risk management.
The CS2 Trade Up Calculator helps players determine the Expected Value (EV) and potential Net Profit of a Trade Up Contract. By inputting the cost of your 10 required skins and the prices/probabilities of the potential output skins, you can calculate the statistical profitability before committing your inventory.
CS2 Trade Up Calculator
Output Skin Outcomes (Max 4)
Expected Net Profit (EV – Cost):
Expected Value (EV):
Total Input Cost:
Detailed Calculation Steps
CS2 Trade Up Calculator Formula
The calculation is based on the fundamental principle of Expected Value (EV), which is used to determine the average outcome of an event when repeated many times. This metric indicates whether a Trade Up Contract is statistically profitable in the long run.
EV = Σ (Price of Outcome_i × Probability of Outcome_i)
2. Total Input Cost Calculation:
Total Cost = 10 × Cost per Input Skin
3. Net Profit Calculation:
Net Profit = EV - Total Cost
Variables Explained
The calculator uses the following variables, which you need to accurately source from the Steam Market or reputable trading platforms:
- Cost per Input Skin ($): The price you pay for each of the 10 skins required for the Trade Up Contract.
- Price ($) – Outcome i: The current market price of a potential resulting skin (the one you receive).
- Prob. (%) – Outcome i: The calculated percentage chance of receiving that specific skin. These probabilities are determined by the number of different collections and skins involved in the contract. **The sum of all active probabilities must equal 100%.**
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What is the CS2 Trade Up Calculator?
The Trade Up Contract in Counter-Strike 2 is a feature that allows players to exchange 10 weapon skins of the same rarity and exterior quality (e.g., 10 Mil-Spec, Factory New skins) for one random weapon skin of the next highest rarity. For example, 10 Restricted (Purple) skins can be traded up for one Classified (Pink) skin. The resulting skin will be from one of the collections that the input skins belong to.
A CS2 Trade Up Calculator is an essential tool for serious traders. It quantifies the inherent risk and reward of the contract by computing the Expected Value (EV). Since the result of a Trade Up is random, the EV represents the average amount of money you would expect to gain or lose per trade if you performed the contract thousands of times. A positive Net Profit indicates a theoretically profitable trade up.
Using this calculator helps eliminate emotional decisions and gambling tendencies by grounding the trade in mathematical reality. It is crucial for maximizing inventory value and identifying the most lucrative contracts from the vast array of available skins and collections.
How to Calculate CS2 Trade Up Profitability (Example)
- Determine Total Input Cost: Multiply the cost of a single skin by 10. (Example: $0.50 per skin $\times$ 10 skins = $5.00 Total Cost).
- Identify All Potential Outcomes: List every possible skin (and its corresponding exterior wear) that you could receive from the trade up.
- Source Prices and Probabilities: Find the current market price for each potential output skin (P$_i$) and determine its precise probability (W$_i$) based on the collections involved. For a simple contract with two input collections of equal number, the probability of an outcome from collection A is 50%, and collection B is 50%.
- Calculate Individual Expected Value: For each potential output skin, multiply its Price by its Probability (converted to a decimal, e.g., 50% = 0.50). (Example: Skin A $12.00 \times 0.10 = \$1.20$ EV contribution).
- Sum the Expected Values (EV): Add up the EV contributions of ALL potential outcomes. This is the total Expected Value of the resulting skin. (Example: $\sum EV = \$1.20 + \$4.05 = \$5.25$).
- Calculate Net Profit: Subtract the Total Input Cost from the total Expected Value. (Example: Net Profit = $\$5.25 – \$5.00 = \$0.25$). A profit of $0.25 means the trade is profitable.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Is a CS2 Trade Up contract always profitable?
No. A Trade Up Contract is only statistically profitable if the Expected Value (EV) of the output is higher than the Total Input Cost (yielding a positive Net Profit). Most common or simple Trade Ups are generally negative EV.
What is Expected Value (EV)?
EV is a long-run average. If the EV is $5.20 and the cost is $5.00, it means you gain an average of $0.20 per trade. However, in a single trade, you will either win big or lose everything. It does not predict the outcome of a single attempt.
How do I determine the probabilities for the output skins?
Probabilities are calculated based on the number of input skins from each collection. If you use 5 skins from Collection A and 5 from Collection B (Total 10), the chance of getting a skin from Collection A is 5/10 (50%). Within that collection, the probability is further divided among the possible output skins.
Why is the condition (wear) of the output skin important?
The exterior quality (Factory New, Minimal Wear, etc.) of the output skin is based on the average float value of the input skins. Since the price difference between a Factory New and a Field-Tested version can be hundreds of dollars, accurately predicting and incorporating the price for the correct condition is vital for the calculator’s accuracy.