CS2 Trade Up Contract Calculator
Use this calculator to estimate the expected value and potential profit/loss of your CS2 trade-up contracts. Input the float values of your 10 input skins, their total cost, and the probabilities and market prices of your potential output skins.
Input Skin Floats (0.00 – 1.00)
Potential Output Skins & Market Data
Disclaimer: Market prices fluctuate. This calculator provides an estimate based on your inputs and does not guarantee actual trade-up outcomes or profits.
Potential Output Skins & Market Data
'; // Clear previous inputs for (var i = 1; i <= numOutputSkins; i++) { var row = document.createElement('div'); row.className = 'output-skin-row'; row.innerHTML = ` `; container.appendChild(row); } } // Initial generation of output skin inputs on page load generateOutputSkinInputs(); function calculateTradeUp() { var inputFloats = []; var totalFloatSum = 0; var isValid = true; // Get input skin floats for (var i = 1; i <= 10; i++) { var floatId = 'inputFloat' + i; var floatValue = parseFloat(document.getElementById(floatId).value); if (isNaN(floatValue) || floatValue 1) { alert('Please enter a valid float value between 0.00 and 1.00 for Input Skin ' + i + '.'); isValid = false; break; } inputFloats.push(floatValue); totalFloatSum += floatValue; } if (!isValid) { document.getElementById('result').style.display = 'none'; return; } var totalInputCost = parseFloat(document.getElementById('totalInputCost').value); if (isNaN(totalInputCost) || totalInputCost <= 0) { alert('Please enter a valid total cost for the input skins.'); document.getElementById('result').style.display = 'none'; return; } var numOutputSkins = parseInt(document.getElementById('numOutputSkins').value); var expectedTradeUpValue = 0; var totalProbability = 0; // Get output skin probabilities and prices for (var i = 1; i <= numOutputSkins; i++) { var probId = 'outputProb' + i; var priceId = 'outputPrice' + i; var probability = parseFloat(document.getElementById(probId).value); var price = parseFloat(document.getElementById(priceId).value); if (isNaN(probability) || probability < 0 || isNaN(price) || price 0.01 * numOutputSkins) { // Allow for small rounding errors alert('Warning: The sum of output probabilities is ' + totalProbability.toFixed(2) + '%. It should ideally be 100%. Please adjust.'); // Continue calculation but warn the user } // Calculate average output float var averageOutputFloat = totalFloatSum / 10; // Calculate profit/loss var estimatedProfitLoss = expectedTradeUpValue – totalInputCost; // Display results var resultDiv = document.getElementById('result'); resultDiv.style.display = 'block'; var profitLossClass = 'neutral'; if (estimatedProfitLoss > 0) { profitLossClass = 'profit'; } else if (estimatedProfitLoss < 0) { profitLossClass = 'loss'; } resultDiv.innerHTML = ` Average Output Float: ${averageOutputFloat.toFixed(8)} Expected Trade-Up Value: $${expectedTradeUpValue.toFixed(2)} Estimated Profit/Loss: $${estimatedProfitLoss.toFixed(2)} The average output float determines the wear of your resulting skin. For example, 0.00-0.07 is Factory New, 0.07-0.15 is Minimal Wear, etc. `; }Understanding CS2 Trade Up Contracts
CS2 (Counter-Strike 2) offers a unique in-game feature called the "Trade Up Contract." This system allows players to exchange 10 weapon skins of the same rarity for one new weapon skin of the next higher rarity. While it can be a thrilling way to acquire more valuable skins, it's also a gamble. Understanding the mechanics and calculating the expected value is crucial for making informed decisions.
How Trade Up Contracts Work
- Input Skins: You need exactly 10 weapon skins of the same rarity (e.g., 10 Mil-Spec skins).
- Output Rarity: The resulting skin will always be one rarity tier higher than your input skins (e.g., 10 Mil-Spec skins yield one Restricted skin).
- Collection Pool: This is critical. The output skin will come from one of the collections that your 10 input skins belong to. If all 10 input skins are from the same collection, your output skin is guaranteed to be from that collection. If your input skins are from multiple collections, the probability of getting a skin from a specific collection is proportional to the number of input skins from that collection (e.g., 7 skins from Collection A, 3 from Collection B means a 70% chance for Collection A, 30% for Collection B).
- Float Value: The "float value" (or wear rating) of a skin determines its condition (Factory New, Minimal Wear, Field-Tested, etc.). For a trade-up, the output skin's float value is the average of the 10 input skins' float values. A lower float is generally more desirable.
Key Factors for Calculation
- Input Skin Floats: The individual float values of your 10 input skins directly determine the float of your potential output skin. Aim for low float inputs if you want a good condition output.
- Total Input Cost: This is the sum of what you paid for all 10 input skins. This is your investment.
- Potential Output Skins: Based on the collections of your input skins, identify all possible skins you could receive at the next rarity tier.
- Output Skin Probabilities: Determine the percentage chance of getting each specific output skin. This is based on the collection distribution of your input skins.
- Output Skin Market Prices: Research the current market price for each potential output skin at the wear condition corresponding to your calculated average float. This is where the expected value comes from.
Understanding Expected Value (EV)
The Expected Value (EV) of a trade-up contract is the average outcome you would expect if you performed the trade-up many times. It's calculated as:
EV = (Probability_1 * Price_1) + (Probability_2 * Price_2) + ... - Total Input Cost
A positive EV suggests that, on average, you stand to make a profit. A negative EV suggests an average loss. While EV is a powerful tool, remember that each trade-up is a single event, and luck plays a significant role.
How to Use the Calculator
- Input Skin Floats: Enter the float value (e.g., 0.08765432) for each of your 10 input skins. You can find these values on third-party inventory sites or in-game inspect.
- Total Input Skin Cost: Enter the total amount you spent to acquire all 10 input skins.
- Number of Potential Output Skins: Select how many distinct skins you could potentially receive from your trade-up. This depends on the collections of your input skins.
- Output Skin Probabilities & Prices: For each potential output skin, enter its probability (e.g., 33.33% if there are 3 equally likely outcomes) and its current market price at the wear condition determined by your average input float. You'll need to research these prices on marketplaces like Steam Community Market, Buff.163, or other trading sites.
- Calculate: Click the "Calculate Trade Up" button to see your average output float, expected trade-up value, and estimated profit or loss.
Example Scenario:
Let's say you have 10 Mil-Spec skins. 5 are from the "Dust II Collection" and 5 are from the "Mirage Collection". You want to trade up to Restricted skins.
- Input Floats: All 10 skins have floats around 0.10 (Minimal Wear).
- Total Input Cost: You bought them for an average of $1.05 each, so total cost is $10.50.
- Potential Output Skins:
- From Dust II: AWP | Atheris (Restricted)
- From Mirage: AK-47 | Uncharted (Restricted)
- From Mirage: USP-S | Cyrex (Restricted)
- Probabilities:
- AWP | Atheris: 50% (since 5/10 inputs are Dust II, and let's assume Atheris is the only Restricted from Dust II in this example)
- AK-47 | Uncharted: 25% (since 5/10 inputs are Mirage, and let's assume Uncharted and Cyrex are the two Restricted from Mirage, each 50% of the Mirage pool, so 50% * 50% = 25%)
- USP-S | Cyrex: 25% (same logic as Uncharted)
- Market Prices (at average float 0.10, Minimal Wear):
- AWP | Atheris (MW): $15.00
- AK-47 | Uncharted (MW): $25.00
- USP-S | Cyrex (MW): $30.00
Using the calculator with these values would give you:
- Average Output Float: 0.10 (if all inputs were 0.10)
- Expected Trade-Up Value: (0.50 * $15.00) + (0.25 * $25.00) + (0.25 * $30.00) = $7.50 + $6.25 + $7.50 = $21.25
- Estimated Profit/Loss: $21.25 – $10.50 = $10.75 Profit
This example shows a potentially profitable trade-up. Always do your research and use the calculator to assess your risks and rewards!