Cumulative Default Rate Calculation

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Cumulative Default Rate Calculator
Please enter valid positive numbers. Defaults cannot exceed original balance.
Cumulative Default Rate (CDR) 0.00%
Annualized Default Rate (ADR) 0.00%
Remaining Performing Pool 0
function calculateCDR() { var initial = parseFloat(document.getElementById('initialCohortBalance').value); var defaults = parseFloat(document.getElementById('accumulatedDefaults').value); var months = parseFloat(document.getElementById('monthsElapsed').value); var errorDiv = document.getElementById('errorMessage'); var resultDiv = document.getElementById('results'); // Reset display errorDiv.style.display = 'none'; resultDiv.style.display = 'none'; // Validation if (isNaN(initial) || isNaN(defaults) || initial <= 0 || defaults initial) { errorDiv.innerText = "Total defaults cannot be greater than the original pool balance."; errorDiv.style.display = 'block'; return; } // 1. Calculate CDR // Formula: (Accumulated Defaults / Original Pool Balance) * 100 var cdrDecimal = defaults / initial; var cdrPercent = cdrDecimal * 100; // 2. Calculate Annualized Default Rate (ADR) // Formula used: 1 – (1 – CDR)^(1/Years) // This converts the cumulative loss over a period into an equivalent annual rate var adrPercent = 0; if (months > 0 && cdrDecimal 0) { document.getElementById('adrResult').innerText = adrPercent.toFixed(2) + "%"; } else { document.getElementById('adrResult').innerText = "N/A"; } // Formatting remaining number with commas document.getElementById('remainingResult').innerText = remaining.toLocaleString(undefined, {minimumFractionDigits: 0, maximumFractionDigits: 2}); resultDiv.style.display = 'block'; }

Understanding Cumulative Default Rate (CDR)

The Cumulative Default Rate (CDR) is a critical metric in credit risk management and structured finance. It measures the total percentage of a loan portfolio that has defaulted since the portfolio's inception. Unlike periodic default rates which measure performance over a specific month or year, the CDR provides a lifetime view of the cohort's performance.

How to Calculate CDR

The calculation for CDR is straightforward but powerful. It requires tracking the aggregate amount of defaults relative to the initial size of the pool. The formula is:

CDR = (Total Accumulated Defaults / Original Pool Balance) × 100

Inputs Explained:

  • Original Pool Balance: The total dollar value (or count) of all loans in the portfolio at the time of origination (t=0). Do not use the current outstanding balance.
  • Total Accumulated Defaults: The sum of the original balances of all loans that have entered default status from inception up to the current date.

CDR vs. Annualized Default Rate (ADR)

While CDR tells you "how much has been lost total," it is often difficult to compare portfolios of different ages using CDR alone. A portfolio that is 5 years old naturally has a higher CDR than a portfolio that is 6 months old.

To solve this, analysts convert the CDR into an Annualized Default Rate (ADR). This implies the constant annual rate of default that would result in the current CDR over the elapsed time period. Our calculator provides this metric automatically when you input the "Time Elapsed".

Why is CDR Important?

  • Performance Benchmarking: Investors compare the CDR of a specific vintage against historical vintages to assess if credit quality is deteriorating.
  • Loss Provisioning: Banks use CDR trends to estimate expected lifetime losses for setting aside capital reserves.
  • Securitization Analysis: In ABS (Asset-Backed Securities) and MBS (Mortgage-Backed Securities), CDR curves are essential for modeling cash flows and determining the safety of different tranches.

Example Calculation

Imagine a lender originates a portfolio of consumer loans worth 50,000,000. After 3 years (36 months), loans totaling 2,500,000 have defaulted.

  • CDR: (2,500,000 / 50,000,000) × 100 = 5.00%
  • ADR: To find the annual rate, we solve: 1 – (1 – 0.05)^(1/3) ≈ 1.70% per year.

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