Estimate your 10-Year Probability of Osteoporotic Fractures
FRAX Risk Assessment Inputs
Please provide the following information to estimate your fracture risk. This calculator is based on the FRAX tool for the USA population.
Enter your current age in years.
Female
Male
Select your biological sex.
Enter your weight in kilograms (kg).
Enter your height in meters (m). Example: 1.70 for 170 cm.
Yes
No
Has a fracture occurred after age 50?
Yes
No
Did either parent have a hip fracture?
Yes
No
Do you currently smoke?
Yes
No
Are you taking glucocorticoids (e.g., prednisone) for 3+ months?
Yes
No
Do you have rheumatoid arthritis?
Yes
No
Do you have a condition causing secondary osteoporosis (e.g., Type 1 diabetes, malabsorption)?
Enter units of alcohol consumed per day (average). 1 unit ≈ 10g alcohol.
Enter your Body Mass Index (BMI). If left blank, it will be calculated from weight and height.
Enter your Femur Neck BMD (g/cm²). If blank, FRAX will not use this input.
Your Estimated Fracture Risk
10-Year Probability of Major Osteoporotic Fracture
–%
10-Year Probability of Hip Fracture
–%
BMI (Calculated)
—
Formula Basis: This calculator uses the FRAX® tool algorithm, which estimates the 10-year probability of major osteoporotic fractures (clinical spine fracture, hip fracture, forearm fracture, or humerus fracture) and hip fracture. It incorporates clinical risk factors and, optionally, Bone Mineral Density (BMD) at the femur neck. The algorithm is specific to the USA population.
Fracture Risk Comparison
Comparison of your estimated fracture probabilities against general population averages for your age and sex (USA).
FRAX Input Summary
Input Parameter
Your Value
Notes
Age
—
Years
Sex
—
—
Weight
—
kg
Height
—
m
Previous Fracture
—
Yes/No
Parental Hip Fracture
—
Yes/No
Smoking
—
Yes/No
Glucocorticoid Use
—
Yes/No
Rheumatoid Arthritis
—
Yes/No
Secondary Osteoporosis
—
Yes/No
Alcohol Consumption
—
Units/day
BMI
—
kg/m²
Femur Neck BMD
—
g/cm² (if provided)
What is a FRAX Calculator?
A FRAX calculator is a vital online tool designed to assess an individual's risk of experiencing a fracture due to osteoporosis over a specific period, typically 10 years. FRAX stands for Fracture Risk Assessment Tool. Developed by the World Health Organization (WHO), it's a widely recognized and validated instrument used by healthcare professionals globally. The FRAX calculator USA version is specifically calibrated for the demographic and epidemiological characteristics of the United States population. It helps identify individuals who may benefit from further bone density testing or preventative treatments for osteoporosis.
Who should use it?
Individuals aged 40 and older, especially those with risk factors for osteoporosis.
Postmenopausal women.
Men aged 50 and older.
Anyone experiencing bone pain, loss of height, or a history of fractures after minor trauma.
Patients with conditions or taking medications known to affect bone health.
Common Misconceptions:
Misconception: FRAX is a diagnostic tool for osteoporosis. Reality: FRAX estimates fracture risk; a bone density scan (DXA) is used to diagnose osteoporosis.
Misconception: A low FRAX score means no risk. Reality: FRAX provides a probability. Even low scores indicate some risk, and the score should be interpreted in clinical context.
Misconception: FRAX replaces a doctor's judgment. Reality: FRAX is a decision-support tool; clinical judgment remains paramount.
FRAX Calculator USA Formula and Mathematical Explanation
The FRAX calculator USA employs a complex logistic regression model. This model uses a combination of clinical risk factors to predict the 10-year probability of major osteoporotic fractures (MOF) and hip fractures (HF). The core of the FRAX algorithm is a set of equations derived from large epidemiological studies. For the USA, these equations have been refined using data specific to the American population.
The general form of the logistic regression model used in FRAX is:
P(event) is the probability of the event (e.g., MOF or HF) occurring within 10 years.
exp() is the exponential function (e raised to the power of the argument).
β₀ is the intercept term (constant).
β₁, β₂, ..., β are the coefficients for each clinical risk factor.
X₁, X₂, ..., X are the values of the corresponding clinical risk factors.
The specific coefficients (β values) and the set of risk factors (X variables) differ slightly between the models for MOF and HF, and are population-specific (e.g., for the USA). The inclusion of Bone Mineral Density (BMD) further refines the prediction, often by modifying the existing risk factors or adding a specific BMD term to the equation.
Variable Explanations:
FRAX Variables and Their Meanings
Variable
Meaning
Unit
Typical Range
Age
Patient's age
Years
40-90+
Sex
Biological sex
Categorical (Male/Female)
0 or 1
Weight
Patient's weight
Kilograms (kg)
Variable
Height
Patient's height
Meters (m)
Variable
Previous Fracture
History of fracture after age 50
Binary (Yes/No)
0 or 1
Parental Hip Fracture
History of hip fracture in either parent
Binary (Yes/No)
0 or 1
Smoking
Current smoker status
Binary (Yes/No)
0 or 1
Glucocorticoid Use
Use of glucocorticoids (≥3 months)
Binary (Yes/No)
0 or 1
Rheumatoid Arthritis
Diagnosis of Rheumatoid Arthritis
Binary (Yes/No)
0 or 1
Secondary Osteoporosis
Presence of secondary causes of osteoporosis
Binary (Yes/No)
0 or 1
Alcohol Consumption
Average daily alcohol intake
Units per day (1 unit ≈ 10g alcohol)
0+
BMI
Body Mass Index (Weight in kg / Height in m²)
kg/m²
Variable (e.g., 15-40)
Femur Neck BMD
Bone Mineral Density at the Femur Neck
g/cm²
Variable (e.g., 0.4 – 1.0+)
Note: The exact coefficients and specific implementation details are proprietary to the FRAX tool but are based on established statistical methods.
Practical Examples (Real-World Use Cases)
Understanding the FRAX calculator USA in practice is key. Here are two examples:
Example 1: Postmenopausal Woman at Moderate Risk
Patient Profile:
Age: 68 years
Sex: Female
Weight: 60 kg
Height: 1.65 m
Previous Fracture: No
Parental Hip Fracture: Yes
Smoking: No
Glucocorticoid Use: No
Rheumatoid Arthritis: No
Secondary Osteoporosis: No
Alcohol Consumption: 1 unit/day
Femur Neck BMD: 0.750 g/cm²
Inputs to Calculator: All the above values are entered.
Calculator Output (Illustrative):
Calculated BMI: 22.0 kg/m²
10-Year Probability of Major Osteoporotic Fracture: 15.0%
10-Year Probability of Hip Fracture: 5.5%
Financial Interpretation: This score suggests a moderate risk. The presence of a parental hip fracture and moderate alcohol consumption contribute to the risk. The BMD value helps refine this. A clinician might discuss lifestyle modifications, ensure adequate calcium and Vitamin D intake, and consider if pharmacologic treatment is warranted based on these results and other clinical factors.
Example 2: Older Man with Multiple Risk Factors
Patient Profile:
Age: 75 years
Sex: Male
Weight: 75 kg
Height: 1.75 m
Previous Fracture: Yes (forearm fracture at age 60)
Parental Hip Fracture: No
Smoking: Yes
Glucocorticoid Use: Yes (prednisone 5mg daily for 5 years)
Rheumatoid Arthritis: No
Secondary Osteoporosis: No
Alcohol Consumption: 4 units/day
Femur Neck BMD: 0.680 g/cm²
Inputs to Calculator: All the above values are entered.
Calculator Output (Illustrative):
Calculated BMI: 24.5 kg/m²
10-Year Probability of Major Osteoporotic Fracture: 28.0%
10-Year Probability of Hip Fracture: 12.0%
Financial Interpretation: This individual has a significantly elevated fracture risk, driven by multiple factors: age, male sex (though less risk than female, high risk factors elevate it), previous fracture, smoking, long-term glucocorticoid use, and high alcohol consumption. The BMD further confirms low bone density. This patient would likely be strongly recommended for osteoporosis treatment, alongside interventions to address modifiable risk factors like smoking cessation and reduced alcohol intake.
How to Use This FRAX Calculator USA
Using the FRAX calculator USA is straightforward. Follow these steps to get your estimated fracture risk:
Gather Information: Collect all the necessary details listed in the input fields. This includes personal data like age and sex, lifestyle factors (smoking, alcohol), medical history (previous fractures, parental hip fracture, specific conditions), and measurements (weight, height, BMD if available).
Enter Data Accurately: Input your information into the corresponding fields. Ensure units are correct (e.g., kg for weight, meters for height). For BMI, you can either enter it directly if known or let the calculator compute it from your weight and height. If you have a Femur Neck BMD measurement, enter it; otherwise, leave it blank.
Calculate Risk: Click the "Calculate FRAX" button. The calculator will process your inputs using the USA-specific FRAX algorithm.
Review Results: The primary results displayed are the 10-year probability of a major osteoporotic fracture and the 10-year probability of a hip fracture. Intermediate values like your calculated BMI are also shown.
Understand the Output: The percentages represent the likelihood of experiencing these fractures within the next decade. These figures are crucial for risk stratification.
Use the Summary Table: The table provides a clear overview of all the data you entered, serving as a confirmation and a useful reference.
Copy Results: If you need to share your results or save them, use the "Copy Results" button.
Reset: The "Reset" button clears all fields, allowing you to start over or recalculate with different inputs.
Decision-Making Guidance:
The FRAX score is a tool to aid clinical decision-making, not replace it. Generally:
High Risk: Scores above certain thresholds (e.g., >20% for MOF or >3% for Hip Fracture in some guidelines, though thresholds vary) often indicate a need for pharmacologic treatment for osteoporosis.
Moderate Risk: Scores in the intermediate range may prompt further evaluation, such as a DXA scan, or closer monitoring of modifiable risk factors.
Low Risk: Scores below the intervention threshold typically suggest that lifestyle advice (diet, exercise, fall prevention) is sufficient, but regular reassessment is still important.
Always discuss your FRAX results with your healthcare provider to determine the most appropriate course of action for your specific health situation.
Key Factors That Affect FRAX Results
Several factors significantly influence the outcome of a FRAX calculator USA assessment. Understanding these can help in interpreting your results and identifying areas for potential intervention:
Age: This is one of the strongest predictors. Bone density naturally decreases with age, and the cumulative exposure to risk factors increases the likelihood of fractures over time.
Bone Mineral Density (BMD): While not always included, a lower BMD (especially at the femur neck) is a powerful indicator of increased fracture risk. The FRAX tool incorporates BMD to provide a more precise risk estimate when available.
Previous Fracture History: A prior fracture, particularly after age 50, is a significant predictor of future fractures. It often indicates underlying bone fragility.
Genetics and Family History: A history of parental hip fracture suggests a potential genetic predisposition to osteoporosis or bone fragility.
Lifestyle Factors:
Smoking: Directly toxic to bone cells and can reduce calcium absorption.
Excessive Alcohol Consumption: More than 2-3 units per day can impair bone formation, increase fall risk, and affect hormone levels.
Medical Conditions and Treatments:
Glucocorticoid Use: Long-term use (e.g., prednisone) significantly accelerates bone loss.
Rheumatoid Arthritis & Secondary Osteoporosis: These conditions are associated with increased bone resorption and/or decreased bone formation, leading to weaker bones.
Body Mass Index (BMI): While very low BMI is a risk factor (less bone mass, higher fall impact), extremely high BMI can sometimes be protective due to increased bone loading, though it also increases fall risk and severity. The FRAX tool calculates BMI and uses it in its algorithm.
Sex: Women generally have a higher risk than men, particularly after menopause, due to hormonal changes and lower peak bone mass.
Addressing modifiable risk factors like smoking, alcohol intake, and medication management can help mitigate fracture risk, even if some non-modifiable factors (like age or genetics) cannot be changed.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
What is the difference between the Major Osteoporotic Fracture (MOF) and Hip Fracture probabilities?
The MOF probability estimates the 10-year risk of fractures at the hip, spine (clinical), forearm, or humerus. The Hip Fracture probability specifically estimates the risk of a hip fracture only. The MOF probability is generally higher as it includes more fracture sites.
Can the FRAX calculator diagnose osteoporosis?
No, the FRAX calculator estimates fracture risk, not the presence of osteoporosis itself. Osteoporosis is diagnosed using a bone density test (DXA scan). FRAX helps decide who might need a DXA scan or treatment.
How accurate is the FRAX calculator?
FRAX is a validated tool with good predictive accuracy for fracture risk in populations for which it has been calibrated, like the USA. However, it's an estimate, and individual risk can vary. It works best when used by a healthcare professional who considers the full clinical picture.
What does "Secondary Osteoporosis" mean in the FRAX input?
Secondary osteoporosis refers to bone loss caused by other medical conditions (like Type 1 diabetes, hyperthyroidism, malabsorption syndromes) or medications (like long-term glucocorticoids, certain anticonvulsants) that interfere with bone health.
Should I use my BMD in the FRAX calculator?
If you have a recent and reliable measurement of Bone Mineral Density (BMD) specifically at the Femur Neck, entering it can provide a more accurate FRAX score. If you don't have this measurement, you can leave it blank, and FRAX will calculate risk based on clinical factors alone.
How often should I use the FRAX calculator?
Generally, FRAX is reassessed every few years, or sooner if there are significant changes in health status, medications, or lifestyle that might affect bone health. Your doctor will advise on the appropriate frequency.
What are the intervention thresholds for FRAX scores?
Intervention thresholds vary by country and clinical guidelines. In the US, for example, a 10-year MOF probability of >20% or a Hip Fracture probability of >3% often triggers a recommendation for pharmacologic treatment, but this should be guided by a physician.
Does the FRAX calculator account for fall risk?
While FRAX doesn't directly ask about fall history, factors like age, sex, previous fractures, and certain medical conditions (like Rheumatoid Arthritis) are indirectly linked to increased fall risk. The calculator's output should be considered alongside a clinical assessment of fall risk.
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