Understanding Growth Rate Math: Formulas and Applications
Calculating growth rates is a fundamental mathematical skill used across various disciplines, from analyzing population dynamics and scientific data to tracking website traffic or business metrics. Understanding the underlying mathematics allows for accurate interpretation of trends over time.
This guide explores the essential formulas used in the calculator above: the simple percentage growth formula and the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) formula.
1. Simple Percentage Growth (Absolute Growth)
The simplest way to measure change is to calculate the total percentage increase or decrease between two points in time. This metric does not account for how long it took to achieve the growth; it simply measures the net change relative to the starting point.
The Formula:
Total Growth % = ( (Ending Value – Starting Value) / Starting Value ) * 100
This formula calculates the absolute difference, divides it by the original value to find the decimal change, and multiplies by 100 to convert it to a percentage.
2. The Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) Formula
When measuring growth over multiple periods (e.g., several years), simple percentage growth can be misleading. It doesn't account for the compounding effect—the fact that growth in one period builds upon the growth of previous periods.
CAGR solves this by calculating a "smoothed" annual rate. It answers the question: "What constant growth rate would take me from my starting value to my ending value over this specific number of periods?"
The Math Behind CAGR:
The formula is derived from the compound interest formula. If $V_{begin}$ is the start value, $V_{end}$ is the end value, $t$ is the number of periods, and $r$ is the rate:
V_{end} = V_{begin} * (1 + r)^t
To solve for the rate ($r$), we rearrange the formula:
CAGR (%) = [ (Ending Value / Starting Value)^(1 / Number of Periods) – 1 ] * 100
In this formula, (1 / Number of Periods) acts as the exponent (the $t$-th root), essentially "un-compounding" the total growth over the specified timeframe.
Mathematical Example
Let's apply these formulas to a practical scenario. Suppose a city's population was 50,000 in the year 2018 and grew to 75,000 by the year 2023.
- Starting Value: 50,000
- Ending Value: 75,000
- Number of Periods (Years): 5 (from 2018 to 2023)
Calculating Total Growth:
((75,000 – 50,000) / 50,000) * 100
= (25,000 / 50,000) * 100
= 0.5 * 100 = 50% Total Growth
Calculating CAGR:
((75,000 / 50,000)^(1/5) – 1) * 100
= (1.5^(0.2) – 1) * 100
= (1.08447 – 1) * 100
= 0.08447 * 100 = 8.45% CAGR
While the total population grew by 50%, the average compounded growth rate per year was approximately 8.45%.