Vex Mythoclast Drop Calculator
About the Vex Mythoclast Drop Rate
Vex Mythoclast is the raid exotic fusion rifle obtainable from the final encounter of the Vault of Glass raid in Destiny 2. Unlike standard legendary drops, raid exotics are governed by specific RNG (Random Number Generation) rules that can often leave players frustrated after dozens of clears.
How the Calculator Works
This calculator determines your cumulative probability of obtaining the Vex Mythoclast based on the number of "looted clears" you have completed. A looted clear refers to the first time you defeat Atheon on a specific character class during a given week (maximum 3 chances per week).
The Math Behind the Grind:
If we assume a static drop rate (e.g., 5%), the probability of not getting the weapon in one run is 95%. The probability of not getting it after 20 runs is $0.95^{20}$. Therefore, the chance of having obtained it at least once is $1 – (0.95^{Runs})$.
Bad Luck Protection (BLP)
Bungie has implemented "Bad Luck Protection" for certain raid exotics. This mechanic implies that for every clear where you do not receive the item, your drop chance for the next run increases slightly. While exact numbers are rarely published officially, community data suggests a base rate of roughly 5%, potentially increasing by 0.5% to 1% per looted clear.
- Base Rate: Typically estimated at 5%.
- Cumulative Chance: Represents the statistical likelihood that a player would have seen the drop within the specified number of attempts.
- Dry Streak: If your Cumulative Chance is over 90% and you still haven't received the item, you are statistically "unlucky" compared to the average player base.
Note: This tool uses statistical probability models and does not guarantee in-game drops. It is designed to help Guardians visualize their RNG luck.